Performance Audit
v:AURORA X11 CORE+Transparent verification of model predictions, calibration, and market efficiency across varying time horizons.
Definitions & Methodology
What is the difference between Flat and Kelly ROI? +
Flat ROI assumes a fixed 1 unit stake on every bet.
Kelly ROI uses half Kelly Criterion staking (0.5 × Kelly fraction) with compounded bankroll growth.
How is CLV calculated? +
CLV (Closing Line Value) compares our entry odds against Pinnacle and Bet365 closing odds at kickoff.
A positive CLV indicates we beat the sharp closing market.
What about markets that can't be settled? +
Some markets (First Half, Corners, Cards, etc.) cannot be settled using only FT score data.
These are marked with
actual_outcome=NULL and appropriate flags, ensuring we never guess outcomes.
What is model_version vs model_name? +
model_version is the unique identifier for each model iteration (e.g., "AURORA X11 CORE+").
model_name is a display label. Metrics are calculated per model_version to ensure no mixing of different model generations.